Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Does rise in VIX indicate any Signal?

Does the current downfall indicate buying opportunity??? This question is been hunting almost all the investors. 

To get an answer (not an exact answer) I have analyzed below few trends trying to grab for any pattern between the VIX and the S&P 500 Index. 

All of us have heard the saying, which goes "history repeats itself", but history will be repeated only for those who fail to study the past.

For those who fail to study the past events, they will commit the same mistakes of others. I am talking specifically with regard to the lost opportunity of the past. 

Lets not repeat the same mistake!!!  

Analyzed below is the correlation between VIX and S&P 500 to check if the current fall in the Index and the rise in VIX indicate any pattern or opportunity to buy. 

Both the indexes are negatively correlated, i.e. if one rises the other will fall and vice -versa.  The current correlation stands at -0.774.

Yesterday I had posted the Long Term Analysis of the VIX, today the post is to analyze the correlation matrix. 

Below are the two graphs. One is the detailed and the other is the plain and simple (to avoid any confusion).  

I have divided the chart in 3 stages. The first is "Stable VIX and Stable Market." the second is "Rising VIX and Falling Market" and the third is "Falling VIX and Rising markets" (as can be seen from graph 2). 

Back in 2008/2009 when the financial crises unveiled, the VIX reached 80 (extreme); there was blood on the street, i.e. people were SELLING in panic.

Currently i can sniff the same situation. Most of the investors are shy of investing in the current environment and people are heavily selling, as can be seen from the  below charts. The VIX has been on rise (again) and the markets all over the world are griped in fear and panic.

So does this mean we should enter the market, i.e. start to buy ? As usual i would like to quote the legendary investor Warren Buffett, who said "Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one is. You can't buy what is popular and do well." 

Happy Investing!!!!



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