Wednesday, June 16, 2010

GCC and the Oil Story

Every one knows that Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Kuwait are among the biggest producers and exporters of Crude Oil. In fact KSA has got the largest estimated reserves in the world; Kuwait stands fifth in this ranking process. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves).  

GDP of both these countries - or call it fortunes or budget surpluses(off late which these oil producing nations are having) are linked to the oil price(s). But did anyone realize that  the same is not the case with the equity markets, i.e. the markets not necessarily moves on the basis of the black liquid. 

You might hear/see some analysts mentioning on the business news that "the market moved today because of the huge jump in crude price". That is really not, so much, true. 

My topic of discussion in this post today is to check if the variation in the equity index of Kuwait or GCC countries is linked to oil price?
To get an answer for this, please refer below some charts and table showing the long and short correlation.

 Long Run Chart - Absolute Figures

 Long Run Chart - Normalized Figures

YTD Chart - Normalized Figures
Data: Bloomberg, Wealthy Opinions

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